A fine comedy moment is provided by Green MEP Hiltrud Breyer running into a wall to escape the cameras.

Martin may have 1,500 hours of tape. Via a commenter on John’s blog, this from the trib in 2004:

Ambling through European Parliament corridors with a hidden minicam the size of a big sponge, a slightly disheveled Austrian legislator, Hans-Peter Martin, assembled some of the most revealing information about the perk system.

Caught on tape was last December’s Socialist group meeting. Also captured were German politicians fleeing Brussels and Strasbourg after signing in for their daily stipends, pictures that caused huge embarrassment when they appeared in the press.

But that is only the beginning. Martin, 46, a former Der Spiegel journalist, claims to have 1,500 hours of tape. His videos sometimes veer between midsections and double chins, with unintended ceiling shots thrown in. But they clearly display his ability to pose banal questions that draw frank admissions.

That’s from 2004, so I’m not sure when the RTL footage dates from.

He appears to have sold a basic UK freedom to the Cuban government and to any EU government that wishes to trade freely with Cuba.

Here’s how the sale went through:

On 10 June, the day before the Commons was due to vote on extending incarceration without charge to 42 days, Gordon Brown’s pet measure looked likely to be rejected.

On the evening of 11 June, it was in fact approved.

On 12 June, the Guardian reported that he had offered rebel MPs the ending of sanctions against Cuba as a carrot. “Ian Gibson, the Labour MP for Norwich North, was amused when he heard that the all-party Cuba group had been told that Britain would change its stance on EU sanctions against Havana.”

On 13 June, Ireland voted no to the Lisbon Treaty.

On 16 June, Gordon Brown announced that UK ratification of the Treaty would go ahead despite the Irish vote. Following a meeting with George Bush (known to be against lifting Cuba sanctions), he also agreed to send extra troops to Afghanistan.

On 17 June, EU leaders praised Gordon Brown’s “courage” in pressing ahead, thereby expertly pressing one of Brown’s emotional buttons. (He has a curious relationship with “courage”).

On 19 June, the European Commission announced the ending of sanctions against Cuba. The transaction was complete.

Furthermore Lisbon was trying to achieve certain things that were necessary.

With that in mind, this post presents thoughts on a way foward. My suggestions will seem absurd, radical, even childish to anyone who enjoys intellectual games based on political theory taught at university. They’ll seem impractical to those who don’t understand what politics can do. They’re the result of reflection based on some knowledge of the EU - not deep expertise, but awareness of the realities from observation.

1) Generate honesty and trust. The sleight of hand with which each step of the EU project is executed arouses indignation. This is natural. However, it’s pointless trying to persuade the elites to confess to dishonesty and deception in the run-up to the referendum. Their arrogance - encapsulated in Giscard d’Estaing’s suggestion that everything must proceed by stealth - is too pronounced. They have been dishonest. Cowen did not read the Treaty, McCreevy said voters would be insane to read it, Wallstrom clumsily attempted to manipulate public opinion, and many others exaggerated the consequences of a No vote. The Commission failed to publish a consolidated version of the Treaty until after January this year. 

Recriminations are tempting, and futile. Instead it’s enough to request that the duplicity be stamped out before the future arrives. Further progress cannot be made on the basis of lies. There is political expediency, in which certain truths must sometimes be suppressed or avoided, and there is gross dishonesty. The first is necessary at times. The second must now be avoided.

2) It’s important that the project have a declared end point. The amusing analogy of the EU as a bicycle that will fall over if ever it stops is false. The existence of harmonious nations arranged as federations elsewhere is proof that constitutionalism is not a bicycle. There must be an end point and there must be clarity and directness about what the EU project is seeking to achieve. If the eurocrats don’t know, then they should find out, using their expensive educations. If the end-point allows the continued existence of the nation state, fine. If it is a deeply federal Europe, fine too. But it must be fixed, set out on paper, and signed, because the EU is not a theoretical game devised for the entertainment of policy wonks and Internet debaters.

This will be painful to fans of open-ended ”ever closer Union”. But it’s not a demand to legislate for our children and their children - the end point can be changed in five or ten or twenty years time, only it must be clear what is being changed. Is this a reasonable request? In the sense that it will never be granted, it is not.

3) The Treaty, or constitution, must be short and understandable. It’s bad faith to present a 300 page document then complain about the quality of the debate.

Justice Brewer in 1880: “The laws of Rome were written on tablets and posted, that all might read, and all were bound to obedience. The act of that emperor who caused his enactments to be written in small letters, on small tablets, and then posted the latter at such height that none could read the letters, and at the same time insisted upon the rule of obedience, outraging as it did the relations of governor and governed under his own system of government, has never been deemed consistent with or possible under ours.”

In the midst of a blizzard of petulant comments about the Irish No, Daniel Cohn-Bendit echoes this suggestion: “a short Constitution focusing on selected points that are understandable and relevant to citizens”.

No eurocrat has yet explained why something so obviously a constitution can’t look like a real constitution such as Germany’s, France’s, or even the USA’s. Incoporating half the acquis in the treaties has been a dreadful mistake so far. Clarity and succinctness is needed. It will free Government ministers from the need to lie.

The EU expands and thrives on the wooliness, lack of clarity, and lack of accountability that would be removed at a stroke by such a short, meaningful document. But bring legal certainty to the project, and you bring accountability. And by doing so, you provide a significant chunk of the democratic foundation the Commission and Parliament earnestly desire.

4) Clarify the powers of the bodies that legislate, and make plain the relationship between them. Policy and law doesn’t simply emerge from discussions between governments, Commission and Parliament. Contributions come from the external agencies, the EESC, independent NGOs, the ECJ, lobbyists, expert groups and comitology committees. If that method of legislating is acceptable, then set out frankly the rules by which it can happen and the relationship between these bodies. If not, change it. Don’t conceal it and make us mad.

Conclusion: As promised, these suggestions are absurdly straightforward. They will seem alien and impractical to individuals who have learned and inwardly digested “the way it’s done in Brussels”. Equally, I point out that if the citizenry really apprehended how the EU does its business, if they discovered what is “the way it’s done in Brussels”, they would not only find it alien, but the institutions would be a heap of smoking rubble.

Irish voters have rejected the Lisbon Treaty.

With results in from all 43 constituencies, the Lisbon Treaty has been defeated by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%. 

A total of 752,451 people voted in favour of the treaty and 862,415 voted against.

Just 10 constituencies - Clare, Dublin South, Dublin South East, Dublin North, Dublin North Central, Dún Laoghaire, Kildare North, Laois Offaly, Carlow Kilkenny and Meath East - voted in favour of the Treaty. 

Another take: Top 6 reasons why Lisbon was voted down. Number 1 is the Treaty itself - Ireland would lose a Commissioner, the Treaty was too long (300 pages or so), and the possibility of EU interference in Ireland’s tax arrangements remained despite assurances.

The Spectator says man of iron Gordon Brown is to press ahead with ratification of Lisbon regardless of its rejection in Ireland. No surprises there: when it comes to courage, Gordon wrote the book. (There is no evidence to suggest he contributed to this one though).

73Man has a checklist of Lisbon responses: Michael Martin eating his words [ ], Paddy Power spinning his losses [ ], Dick Roche being undemocratic [ ], Patricia McKenna getting all too excited for television [ ], etc. Ouch.

Yes is currently on 46.4%, No is getting 53.6%.

RTE’s referendum blog reports Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore is claiming Lisbon is dead, but there can be no two-speed Europe. Never say never, at least in politics.

“With five constituencies having declared results the No vote is leading by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.  Waterford, Sligo-North Leitrim, Tipperary North and South, Kerry North have all rejected the treaty. The No campaign appears to be winning in most constituencies across the State, with significant majorities emerging from rural and urban working class areas. “

13:04: Paddy Power lost €80,000 when it paid out on a Yes result last night. I wonder what the shareholders will think of that.

12:40: The Irish Times has a running total of official counts. Thanks to eureferendum for the tip.

Bloomberg: “The euro also fell on concern voters in Ireland will reject the European Union’s new governing treaty designed to boost the strength of the 27-nation bloc.”

Tony Barber in the FT: The EU faces the mother of all crises.

“If it really is No, Ireland’s three main political parties - the ruling Fianna Fáil and the opposition Fine Gael and Labour - will have a lot to answer for. Despite agreeing on the need for a Yes vote, they often sniped among themselves about how effective each party’s pro Lisbon campaign was.

It did not help that Bertie Ahern, the former Fianna Fáil leader, was forced to resign last month because of the negative effect of continuing public inquires into his personal financial affairs. Brian Cowen took over as premier but it may have been too late to make a difference.

As for the rest of Europe, it looks as if even if Ireland has voted No, the French, Germans and everyone else will say; “The ratification of Lisbon must go ahead.”

The question that will really need looking at, though, will be: “Why does the EU find is so difficult to sell itself to the voters?”

Meanwhile in Ireland, most of the major newspapers and all the major parties campaigned for a Yes vote.

There’s something wrong when the elites are all saying one thing and the people are saying another.

12:11: three little dogs is listening to Pat Kenny too. “There are sore losers on the Pat Kenny show already - including Pat himself - who usuaually can hide his anger and disappointment better than he is doing today. An avid No campaigner, Patricia McKenna, who broke ranks with her party leaders, is especially singled out for attack.”

Conor’s Commentary asks has Cowen blown Lisbon? I think that’s a given. “the big loser from the Irish referendum is Brian Cowen, whose Biffo nickname will surely be uttered with feeling in the corridors of Berlaymont today.”

11:40: This blog says: Where is the EU’s democratic legitimacy now, after French, Dutch and Irish rejections?

11:35: Unofficial tallies, betting, all reports point to a No.

Brussels is in crisis. Oh well.

11:35: Unofficial tallies:

Dublin NW 42 No-58 Yes, the wider pattern for Dublin was 60-40 - it’s now tightening, but still clearly no.

Bantree: (one box) 170 No - 103 Yes

Cork: one box slightly in favour, the rest No

Tiperrary North: 52 No - 48 Yes, Tiperrary South 51-49

Limerick West: 60% No, other Limerick constituencies up to 69% No.

Galway West: still clearly No. Galway East 50-50.

Mayo: 60 No, 50 Yes (with 80% of boxes opened)

Ballycastle: 20 votes No, 1 vote Yes.

Cork South Central: 55% No, 45% Yes.

Kerry is overwhelmingly No: 60 No, 40 Yes.

Brian Cowen’s own constituency: 43% No, 57% Yes.

Kildare North and South: generally yes (this is Commissioner McCreevy’s home district)

Waterford: Wicklow 50-50

11:14: They’re already trying to say that the people didn’t understand the Treaty on the Pat Kenny show. Focus is shifting to the Referendum Commission - they should have given clearer answers to questions. Subtext: The people are too stupid to understand what the elites are trying to do for them. Expect more of this spin.

11:00: RTE radio news - “The No vote is strong in many rural areas and in working class districts of cities, while middle class areas appear to be less supportive of the Treaty than had been anticipated.” (corrected thanks to Order-Order)

10:58: Donegal SW 60-40 for a No

10:47: Wexford: all opened boxes report No (unofficial tallies)

10:40: Galway West 56% no, 43% yes, Galway East 50%-50%, Mayo 60-40 against, Donegal SW alleged “clearcut No” with 55-45 No (based on unofficial party tallies).

10:37: Tally reports (unofficial counts taken by the parties) on the Pat Kenny show suggest a decisive kicking for the Lisbon Treaty

10:17am: Betfair odds continue moving to favour the No side, and Today FM report 3 to 1 for a No from ordinary people, and 60 to 40 for a No in Merrion Square.

10:05am: Betfair odds on “No” moving in fast. Yes camp biting nails. Russian troops reported manoeuvering on Polish border.

10:00am: RTE radio is rumoured to have an exit poll calling it a “No”. Allegedly on the 6.30am news, but not on later editions. The BBC, bless ‘em, are said to have reported the turnout needs to be at least 40% for the result to be valid - can’t see this on their website, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’d got it wrong and then changed it.

Commentary

One thing I’ve learnt over the past 24 hours is that Irish referendums aren’t frenetic occasions. They don’t feature rolling news, with reporters trying to guess turnouts five minutes after the polls have opened and interviewing Sally, Coleen, and her aunt’s Friesian heifer in Galway as they emerge from the polling booths. This isn’t America, or even the UK. There are no exit polls, no urgent switching from one correspondent to another across the country, no last-minute shenanigens involving buses festooned with balloons, accusations of vote-rigging, “scientists” with degrees in social science extrapolating the result from socio-economic breakdowns of how Limerick schoolchildren would have voted if they had the vote, animal processions, brass bands, or mindless discussion of omens on the TV.

That’s pretty refreshing. There was an honest dullness to events that harked back to better, more innocent times, thank God.

This blog tried to fill that gaping void yesterday. But it was too boring and I went to bed.

Now the count has just begun (9am), and so the next two or three hours promise a bit more action. But not too much action, I’m sure - just enough to get the job done.

Irish Independent: Result too close to call on turnout of just 45pc. “After a late surge in voting last night, the turnout was reported to be possibly hitting the 45pc mark. However, the result is still deemed too close to call.”

Times of Ireland: Counting underway. “Turnout was reported at about 40 per cent by 9pm, up from 20 per cent in some constituencies by mid-afternoon. In general, turnout was reported to be higher in city areas than in rural areas.”

Forex analysis is watching the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, to see what effect the result will have.

The colleagues are preparing their reactions. “The French and German governments are expected to issue a joint statement later today once the Irish verdict is known. The outcome will be discussed by EU foreign ministers, including Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin, when they meet in Luxembourg on Monday.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph has a picture of… wait for it… two nuns voting. In Ireland! Of all the original things! Leader writers are busy polishing tomorrow’s headlines: “They voted No, to be sure, to be sure”, and “It’s yes, begorrah”.

According to Le Monde, Francois Fillon seems to have said if the Irish say no “there is no more Treaty of Lisbon, and the only thing that remains is to resume dialogue with the Irish people”. Or did he? It’s a bit ambiguous; the original is “il n’y a plus de traité de Lisbonne, sauf à reprendre le dialogue avec le peuple irlandais”.

The first exit polls will appear at around 11am. I’ll be posting updates.

12:30pm - UPDATE: No exit polls, but anecdotal evidence of low, high, and average turnouts courtesy of RTE here. In other words nobody knows what’s happening. 

15:54pm - BREAKING NEWS: The Irish Times confirms that the polls opened this morning and numerous people have voted. Well, you heard it on this blog first.

16.05pm - UPDATE: The Limerick Leader reports that top fashionista Celia Holman Lee has branded the growing trend among Limerick ladies of wearing their pyjamas in public as disgraceful. This blog agrees, and hopes she will get cross-party support on this too.

17:37pm - UPDATE: Ex-Nazi supports Yes vote shock.

17:43pm - The excitement is mounting. Lily Murphy offers a photograph of a polling station, and says it’s open.

19:51pm - The continuation of nothing continues to happen, and no faster than it was before. Are the Irish people being sold a pup? No, but a seven-kilo California sea lion pup was born in Dublin zoo on Monday. This could be significant, and has been added to the “possible omens” section below.

The weather in Dublin remains dry. Allegations of a light breeze have been dismissed by the Referendum Commission.

POSSIBLE OMENS: Three black albatrosses were spotted flying in formation across the lapping sands of Galway at 7am, and a statue of St Finbarr has been caught coughing blood in Crookstown.

A seven-kilo sea lion pup has been seen at Dublin Zoo (see photograph)