All constituencies have now reported.

Irish voters have rejected the Lisbon Treaty.

With results in from all 43 constituencies, the Lisbon Treaty has been defeated by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%. 

A total of 752,451 people voted in favour of the treaty and 862,415 voted against.

Just 10 constituencies - Clare, Dublin South, Dublin South East, Dublin North, Dublin North Central, Dún Laoghaire, Kildare North, Laois Offaly, Carlow Kilkenny and Meath East - voted in favour of the Treaty. 

Lisbombed. 5 reasons why the Irish voted no, apparently. The No side got a head-start, the No side had a simple message, the No side were populist, people were afraid, people were confused. None of these look at the text of the treaty itself, and none of them suggest that people made a rational decision. Well… emotion comes into any voting decision, I’m sure. But it strikes me that dismissing the voters in this way is precisely the problem. It’s contemptuous. If the europhiles could get that lesson under their belt, they would do much better.

Another take: Top 6 reasons why Lisbon was voted down. Number 1 is the Treaty itself - Ireland would lose a Commissioner, the Treaty was too long (300 pages or so), and the possibility of EU interference in Ireland’s tax arrangements remained despite assurances.

The Spectator says man of iron Gordon Brown is to press ahead with ratification of Lisbon regardless of its rejection in Ireland. No surprises there: when it comes to courage, Gordon wrote the book. (There is no evidence to suggest he contributed to this one though).

73Man has a checklist of Lisbon responses: Michael Martin eating his words [ ], Paddy Power spinning his losses [ ], Dick Roche being undemocratic [ ], Patricia McKenna getting all too excited for television [ ], etc. Ouch.

Yes is currently on 46.4%, No is getting 53.6%.

RTE’s referendum blog reports Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore is claiming Lisbon is dead, but there can be no two-speed Europe. Never say never, at least in politics.

13:14: The story so far - this blog was right to call it a NO as early as it did.

“With five constituencies having declared results the No vote is leading by 54 per cent to 46 per cent.  Waterford, Sligo-North Leitrim, Tipperary North and South, Kerry North have all rejected the treaty. The No campaign appears to be winning in most constituencies across the State, with significant majorities emerging from rural and urban working class areas. “

13:04: Paddy Power lost €80,000 when it paid out on a Yes result last night. I wonder what the shareholders will think of that.

12:40: The Irish Times has a running total of official counts. Thanks to eureferendum for the tip.

Bloomberg: “The euro also fell on concern voters in Ireland will reject the European Union’s new governing treaty designed to boost the strength of the 27-nation bloc.”

Tony Barber in the FT: The EU faces the mother of all crises.

“If it really is No, Ireland’s three main political parties - the ruling Fianna Fáil and the opposition Fine Gael and Labour - will have a lot to answer for. Despite agreeing on the need for a Yes vote, they often sniped among themselves about how effective each party’s pro Lisbon campaign was.

It did not help that Bertie Ahern, the former Fianna Fáil leader, was forced to resign last month because of the negative effect of continuing public inquires into his personal financial affairs. Brian Cowen took over as premier but it may have been too late to make a difference.

As for the rest of Europe, it looks as if even if Ireland has voted No, the French, Germans and everyone else will say; “The ratification of Lisbon must go ahead.”

The question that will really need looking at, though, will be: “Why does the EU find is so difficult to sell itself to the voters?”

12:16: On a reflective note, this week represents a widening split between the people and the elites. Yesterday, David Davis resigned as shadow Home Secretary for the Tories, in order to campaign for his seat again on the issue of civil liberties. The UK press has criticised him hard, but there are serious indications (vox pop interviews, spontaneous public applause when he got off the train in York, various supportive blogs) that the UK press is out of tune with popular feeling. He has received lukewarm support from his colleagues.

Meanwhile in Ireland, most of the major newspapers and all the major parties campaigned for a Yes vote.

There’s something wrong when the elites are all saying one thing and the people are saying another.

12:11: three little dogs is listening to Pat Kenny too. “There are sore losers on the Pat Kenny show already - including Pat himself - who usuaually can hide his anger and disappointment better than he is doing today. An avid No campaigner, Patricia McKenna, who broke ranks with her party leaders, is especially singled out for attack.”

Conor’s Commentary asks has Cowen blown Lisbon? I think that’s a given. “the big loser from the Irish referendum is Brian Cowen, whose Biffo nickname will surely be uttered with feeling in the corridors of Berlaymont today.”

11:40: This blog says: Where is the EU’s democratic legitimacy now, after French, Dutch and Irish rejections?

11:35: Unofficial tallies, betting, all reports point to a No.

Brussels is in crisis. Oh well.

11:35: Unofficial tallies:

Dublin NW 42 No-58 Yes, the wider pattern for Dublin was 60-40 - it’s now tightening, but still clearly no.

Bantree: (one box) 170 No - 103 Yes

Cork: one box slightly in favour, the rest No

Tiperrary North: 52 No - 48 Yes, Tiperrary South 51-49

Limerick West: 60% No, other Limerick constituencies up to 69% No.

Galway West: still clearly No. Galway East 50-50.

Mayo: 60 No, 50 Yes (with 80% of boxes opened)

Ballycastle: 20 votes No, 1 vote Yes.

Cork South Central: 55% No, 45% Yes.

Kerry is overwhelmingly No: 60 No, 40 Yes.

Brian Cowen’s own constituency: 43% No, 57% Yes.

Kildare North and South: generally yes (this is Commissioner McCreevy’s home district)

Waterford: Wicklow 50-50

11:14: They’re already trying to say that the people didn’t understand the Treaty on the Pat Kenny show. Focus is shifting to the Referendum Commission - they should have given clearer answers to questions. Subtext: The people are too stupid to understand what the elites are trying to do for them. Expect more of this spin.

11:00: RTE radio news - “The No vote is strong in many rural areas and in working class districts of cities, while middle class areas appear to be less supportive of the Treaty than had been anticipated.” (corrected thanks to Order-Order)

10:58: Donegal SW 60-40 for a No

10:47: Wexford: all opened boxes report No (unofficial tallies)

10:40: Galway West 56% no, 43% yes, Galway East 50%-50%, Mayo 60-40 against, Donegal SW alleged “clearcut No” with 55-45 No (based on unofficial party tallies).

10:37: Tally reports (unofficial counts taken by the parties) on the Pat Kenny show suggest a decisive kicking for the Lisbon Treaty

10:17am: Betfair odds continue moving to favour the No side, and Today FM report 3 to 1 for a No from ordinary people, and 60 to 40 for a No in Merrion Square.

10:05am: Betfair odds on “No” moving in fast. Yes camp biting nails. Russian troops reported manoeuvering on Polish border.

10:00am: RTE radio is rumoured to have an exit poll calling it a “No”. Allegedly on the 6.30am news, but not on later editions. The BBC, bless ‘em, are said to have reported the turnout needs to be at least 40% for the result to be valid - can’t see this on their website, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’d got it wrong and then changed it.

Commentary

One thing I’ve learnt over the past 24 hours is that Irish referendums aren’t frenetic occasions. They don’t feature rolling news, with reporters trying to guess turnouts five minutes after the polls have opened and interviewing Sally, Coleen, and her aunt’s Friesian heifer in Galway as they emerge from the polling booths. This isn’t America, or even the UK. There are no exit polls, no urgent switching from one correspondent to another across the country, no last-minute shenanigens involving buses festooned with balloons, accusations of vote-rigging, “scientists” with degrees in social science extrapolating the result from socio-economic breakdowns of how Limerick schoolchildren would have voted if they had the vote, animal processions, brass bands, or mindless discussion of omens on the TV.

That’s pretty refreshing. There was an honest dullness to events that harked back to better, more innocent times, thank God.

This blog tried to fill that gaping void yesterday. But it was too boring and I went to bed.

Now the count has just begun (9am), and so the next two or three hours promise a bit more action. But not too much action, I’m sure - just enough to get the job done.

Irish Independent: Result too close to call on turnout of just 45pc. “After a late surge in voting last night, the turnout was reported to be possibly hitting the 45pc mark. However, the result is still deemed too close to call.”

Times of Ireland: Counting underway. “Turnout was reported at about 40 per cent by 9pm, up from 20 per cent in some constituencies by mid-afternoon. In general, turnout was reported to be higher in city areas than in rural areas.”

Forex analysis is watching the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, to see what effect the result will have.

The colleagues are preparing their reactions. “The French and German governments are expected to issue a joint statement later today once the Irish verdict is known. The outcome will be discussed by EU foreign ministers, including Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin, when they meet in Luxembourg on Monday.”

The UK’s Daily Telegraph has a picture of… wait for it… two nuns voting. In Ireland! Of all the original things! Leader writers are busy polishing tomorrow’s headlines: “They voted No, to be sure, to be sure”, and “It’s yes, begorrah”.

According to Le Monde, Francois Fillon seems to have said if the Irish say no “there is no more Treaty of Lisbon, and the only thing that remains is to resume dialogue with the Irish people”. Or did he? It’s a bit ambiguous; the original is “il n’y a plus de traité de Lisbonne, sauf à reprendre le dialogue avec le peuple irlandais”.

The polls opened at 7am for Ireland’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

The first exit polls will appear at around 11am. I’ll be posting updates.

12:30pm - UPDATE: No exit polls, but anecdotal evidence of low, high, and average turnouts courtesy of RTE here. In other words nobody knows what’s happening. 

15:54pm - BREAKING NEWS: The Irish Times confirms that the polls opened this morning and numerous people have voted. Well, you heard it on this blog first.

16.05pm - UPDATE: The Limerick Leader reports that top fashionista Celia Holman Lee has branded the growing trend among Limerick ladies of wearing their pyjamas in public as disgraceful. This blog agrees, and hopes she will get cross-party support on this too.

17:37pm - UPDATE: Ex-Nazi supports Yes vote shock.

17:43pm - The excitement is mounting. Lily Murphy offers a photograph of a polling station, and says it’s open.

19:51pm - The continuation of nothing continues to happen, and no faster than it was before. Are the Irish people being sold a pup? No, but a seven-kilo California sea lion pup was born in Dublin zoo on Monday. This could be significant, and has been added to the “possible omens” section below.

The weather in Dublin remains dry. Allegations of a light breeze have been dismissed by the Referendum Commission.

POSSIBLE OMENS: Three black albatrosses were spotted flying in formation across the lapping sands of Galway at 7am, and a statue of St Finbarr has been caught coughing blood in Crookstown.

A seven-kilo sea lion pup has been seen at Dublin Zoo (see photograph)

Jon Worth says the “No” to Lisbon campaigners have wheeled out Dustin the Turkey (Ireland’s Eurovision candidate), and are suggesting that a No vote will be suitable revenge for the paltry support it received from Ireland’s supposed friends in the EU.

Paltry… poultry. Well nobody ever accused this blog of high wit.

Jon points out the strangeness of this campaigning gimmick:

if you compare the Eurovision song contest to the EU it makes the EU look quite fair. In Eurovision Russia (the most populous country, 150 million citizens) counts equally with San Marino (30000 citizens), and the EU has decent standards allowing a country to join - Belarus and Isreal participate in Eurovision.

True enough.

I feel it’s not a good sign for the No side that they’re campaigning along these lines. I think the vote is going to be very tight.

For what it’s worth, and it ain’t worth much because the whole question really boils down to “Yes” or “No”, here is what the Irish are voting about:

Article 46.2 of the Irish Constitution says that if the Government wants to change the Irish Constitution, it must seek the peoples’ approval via a referendum.

“Every proposal for an amendment of this Constitution shall be initiated in Dáil Éireann as a Bill, and shall upon having been passed or deemed to have been passed by both Houses of the Oireachtas, be submitted by Referendum to the decision of the people in accordance with the law for the time being in force relating to the Referendum.”

So tomorrow, they’re being asked to vote on a Bill which, if enacted into Irish law, would change the wording of Article 29 of the Constitution. The new wording would give the Government permission to ratify the Treaty on behalf of the people, and looks like this:

“The State may ratify the Treaty of Lisbon amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, signed at Lisbon on the 13th day of December 2007, and may be a member of the European Union established by virtue of that Treaty.”

For the sake of accuracy, they’re also being asked three other things:

1) to give the Government permission to change or discontinue the special arrangements as regards The Area of Freedom, Security and Justice which it agreed earlier (the opt-out), on condition that Parliament approves any changes.

2) to allow the Government to agree to Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) at European Council meetings, as long as Parliament agrees.

3) to approve a measure which would oblige the Government to opt out of European Council decisions to create common defence - i.e. to continue Ireland’s neutrality.

If a majority of the Irish vote yes, the President must sign the Bill, which then becomes law and the relevant wording gets inserted into the Constitution.

Finally, sláinte! May the best ideas leading to the best society win tomorrow.

NB: This is not legal advice and is not guaranteed error-free. The Referendum Commission’s website looks pretty reliable to me if you want more information.

There’s a copy of the Bill available at the website of the Houses of the Oireachtas (the Irish Parliament).

Here’s the current version of the Constitution.

Nice 2001

Yes: 46.13% (453,461 yes votes)
No: 53.87% (529,478 no votes)
Turnout: 34.79%

Total votes: 997,826

Nice 2002

Yes 62.89% (906,202 yes votes)
No 37.11% (534,887 no votes)
Turnout 49.47%

Total votes: 1,446,558

Source: a PDF at http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sei/documents/irelandno1.pdf

There now seems little doubt that Sarkozy will use France’s EU presidency to push for a common corporate tax base (CCTB) from July.

The structure is there, the Commission’s intent is clear. Now the Irish Independent reports two events which show that Sarkozy is planning to go for it.

Firstly a meeting of MEDEF, the French employer’s lobby group, at which Sarkozy said he wanted to introduce CCTB by as early as September. That’s an absurdly over-ambitious promise, but it shows the direction he plans to take.

Secondly the Irish Independent has seen the original agenda for the 2 July meeting of the EU’s Competitiveness Council, at which Laszlo Kovacs is slated to make a presentation about tax harmonisation. The agenda has allegedly been changed - cutting out the item so the public document doesn’t frighten the horses in Ireland before the referendum.

As for the structure, well the Commission is champing at the bit to get tax harmonised:

The European Commission believes that the only systematic way to address the underlying tax obstacles which exist for companies operating in more than one Member State in the Internal Market is to provide companies with a consolidated corporate tax base for their EU-wide activities.

Of course, Ireland will theoretically have a veto on CCTB, but in practice pressure may be brought to bear on the country to stay in line.

All in all it must be said that this news will not go down well in Ireland - and why should it? The low rate of corporation tax has been a big contributor to Ireland’s amazing success in recent years. Furthermore, it adds to the sense that Lisbon is being pushed through in a deceitful and dishonest way.

Link via Corporatetax

A TNS mrbi poll due for publication in the Irish Times tomorrow shows the ‘no’ vote clearly in the lead for Europe’s only referendum on Lisbon.

The latest opinion poll on the Lisbon Referendum is showing the ‘No’ side surging ahead in a dramatic reversal of opinion.

The TNS/mrbi poll in tomorrow’s Irish Times shows opponents of the Treaty with a 5% lead over those in favour.

Up to now, opinion polls on the Referendum campaign have consistently shown the ‘Yes’ side ahead, although opponents have been closing the gap.

It’s time to start talking seriously about Plans B, C, and D. There are plans, half-plans, and panicked twittering. Over the next two or three of days, I’ll be looking properly at the any serious plans on offer - I know the Czechs have mooted something - and talking about what could happen in the event of a rejection of Lisbon by the Irish.

Meanwhile feel free to use the comments to speculate wildly about what could happen if the Irish say no.