President of Europe?
At Euroblog, Jon’s got some strong criticisms about the debate over the proposed EU President’s role. Firstly, he points out that the media shouldn’t be using the term EU President or President of the EU, since the job will be President of the European Council. Secondly, he’s irritated than nobody in the Commission is staking out territory for the President of the Commission, and that the real source of power will be intergovernmentalism and the Council.
He’s got a point. But can you blame anyone for the confusion when the Lisbon Treaty is so vague about allocating powers and status between the President of the Commission (currently Barroso) and the President of the European Council (yet to be appointed, but likely one of Blair, Merkel or Juncker).
Having said that, presidents are flexible in Europe. Anglo Saxons, with their stable or well-delineated administrative powers, tend to forget that continental politics is a bit more fluid. The French constitution, for example, has seen a leisurely erosion of the status of prime minister of France in favour of the President since 1958, so that hardly anybody raised an eyebrow when Sarkozy began appointing the government after his election as President.
Three sides of a triangle
Anyway, looking at the actual Treaty, one gets a few clues as to how things are likely to pan out. Firstly, the Council comes before the Commission - not insignificant when interpreting constitutions. This suggests a pecking order which puts the Commission firmly in third place.
Secondly, when the President of the Council calls a meeting, the President of the Commission will have to turn up. In terms of pecking order, that tells me quite a lot.
Thirdly, the Council will (as before), provide impetus and general political direction for the Union. And it will be the President of the European Council who will “drive forward” the work of the Council.
Finally, lots of people want a big old grand EU President. They don’t want to get even more confused than they are today with some outlandish system of shared competences. The media wouldn’t be able to cope. Ordinary people would just continue thinking the whole system’s mad. And the politics would revolve around a permanent battle between presidencies.
So everything points towards a nice even triangle with the EU President sitting at the apex. Furthermore, if challenged, the fans of intergovernmentalism wanting to demonstrate his legitimacy will be able to point out that the President of the EU is elected by the Council. The fact that this will be a disingenuous position has never stopped anyone in the EU taking it before, so why change the habit of a lifetime?